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New poll suggests that ANC is losing supporters to EFF and DA

A new poll by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) has shown that support for the ANC is declining ahead of the national elections in May.

The poll revealed that the ANC currently enjoys the support of 54.7% of voters – a 1.3% decline since December. As of February‚ ANC support is down 7.4% from the last election.

“The ANC’s general decline from 2014 can be almost exclusively attributed to the EFF. The ANC and the EFF are locked in a battle for between 5% and 10% of alienated black ANC voters‚” said Gareth van Onselen‚ the institute’s head of politics and governance.

“Where those voters end up on 8 May will go some way towards determining the fate of these two parties. It is clear those 5% to 10% of alienated black ANC voters are fluid and have to one degree or another shifted between the ANC and EFF over the past five months.”

The poll was conducted telephonically in February. It involved 1‚611 registered voters and was fully representative of voter demographics in the Western Cape and Gauteng.

It found that:

support for the ANC currently stood at 54.7% nationally – down 1.3% since December and 7.4% from the 62.1% the party secured in 2014;
the DA currently stood at 21.8% nationally – up 3.1% since December but down 0.4% from the 22.2% the party secured in 2014; and
the EFF currently stood at 12.2% nationally‚ up 1.2% from December and 5.9% from the 6.3% the party secured in 2014.
Van Onselen said it was evident that the ANC’s support base was being shaken by the main opposition parties.

While Gauteng was currently governed by the ANC‚ the IRR’s research revealed that the party was losing supporters in the province‚ while the EFF’s support was growing.

“In the Western Cape‚ the DA majority is on a knife-edge‚ with smaller parties showing some growth‚” said Van Onselen.

On the Gauteng provincial ballot‚ the poll found that:

support for the ANC currently stood at 41.6% – down 12% from the 53.6% it secured in the provincial ballot in 2014;
the DA stood at 32.4% – up 1.6% from the 30.8% it secured in 2014; and
the EFF stood at 18.2% – up 7.9% from the 10.3% in 2014.
The poll found that the DA had a racially diverse support base‚ with 27.3% black voters‚ 36% white voters‚ 28% coloured voters and 8.6% Indian votes.

It was a very different story for the other parties‚ however.

The ANC’s support base remains primarily black at 96.2%. Their remaining support is made up of 2.2% coloured voters‚ 1.1% white voters and 0.5% Indian voters.

When it comes to the EFF‚ 98.1% of its supporters are black‚ while only 1.3% are coloured‚ 0.4% white and 0.1% Indian.

Breaking down the findings further in terms of race‚ Van Onselen pointed out that:

among black voters‚ 68% indicated they would vote ANC‚ compared to 16% for the EFF and 8% for the DA;
among white voters‚ 71% said they would vote DA‚ compared to 5% for the ANC and 0% for the EFF;
among coloured voters‚ 67% indicated they would vote DA‚ compared to 13% for the ANC and 2% for the EFF; and
among Indian voters‚ 72% backed the DA‚ compared to 10% for the ANC and 1% for the EFF.
While providing a breakdown of how the elections could turn out‚ Van Onselen stressed that the poll was not a prediction but rather “a snapshot in time” – in this case of the electoral market between February 12 and 26.

Source: TMG Digital.